Seasonality
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Apr is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Apr averages +4.8% with a 71% win rate across 5 years of history.
May shows persistent seasonal weakness.
May averages -2.2% with only a 57% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +4.3% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +0.2% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -46.1% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.53% | -3.58% | -12.28% | 4.34% | -14.30% | -12.31% | -9.03% | -4.20% | ||||
| 2025 | 6.80% | 6.18% | 3.13% | 5.74% | 0.50% | -1.45% | 1.51% | -1.00% | 3.89% | -1.92% | 7.05% | -2.37% |
| 2024 | -0.82% | 2.13% | 4.99% | -3.70% | 2.87% | 6.78% | -1.80% | 5.07% | 0.80% | -6.80% | 7.11% | -7.91% |
| 2023 | -0.38% | -2.94% | 6.62% | 12.58% | -6.64% | 8.93% | -4.67% | -2.77% | -5.66% | 0.75% | 8.75% | 7.19% |
| 2022 | -9.82% | 6.12% | 7.42% | -4.31% | 6.04% | -1.52% | 10.45% | -12.24% | 2.73% | 21.34% | -3.60% | -9.64% |
| 2021 | -7.81% | -7.71% | 3.77% | 8.31% | -8.36% | 0.32% | 12.08% | 1.75% | -9.22% | -0.28% | -5.06% | 2.79% |
| 2020 | -1.04% | -3.47% | 10.68% | 4.70% | 1.41% | 23.61% | 5.39% | -1.72% | 6.75% | -0.83% | 2.49% | |
| Avg | -1.08% | -0.12% | 1.45% | 4.81% | -2.17% | 0.31% | 4.59% | -0.63% | -1.53% | 3.31% | 2.24% | -1.24% |
ROL - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
ROL - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
ROL Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
ROL Distribution of Daily % Changes