Seasonality
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RF - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
RF - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +8.5% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -8.4% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +12.4% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -2.9% historically, with January alone posting a 83% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +14.2% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.17% | -2.35% | -5.24% | 9.30% | -1.93% | 8.89% | 2.48% | 3.07% | ||||
| 2025 | 4.76% | -3.77% | -7.37% | -6.07% | 5.05% | 11.00% | 7.70% | 8.13% | -2.78% | -8.23% | 5.17% | 7.60% |
| 2024 | -3.66% | 1.09% | 12.94% | -8.41% | 0.42% | 4.87% | 11.63% | 4.69% | 0.69% | 2.31% | 14.20% | -12.92% |
| 2023 | 9.18% | -0.93% | -19.67% | -1.62% | -5.42% | 4.39% | 14.31% | -8.79% | -6.22% | -15.52% | 14.80% | 17.84% |
| 2022 | 5.23% | 5.45% | -7.28% | -6.92% | 6.61% | -14.45% | 12.96% | 2.31% | -6.52% | 9.37% | 5.74% | -6.24% |
| 2021 | 5.52% | 21.28% | 0.89% | 5.52% | 7.39% | -13.22% | -4.61% | 6.13% | 5.20% | 11.12% | -3.93% | -3.43% |
| 2020 | -13.17% | -32.94% | 19.84% | 5.21% | -0.43% | -2.34% | 6.45% | 1.07% | 15.35% | 14.81% | 6.59% | |
| Avg | 4.37% | 1.09% | -8.38% | 1.66% | 2.47% | 0.15% | 6.02% | 3.15% | -1.43% | 2.40% | 8.46% | 1.57% |
RF Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
RF Distribution of Daily % Changes