Seasonality
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Aug is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Aug averages +7.2% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Apr shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Apr averages -2.9% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q3 (Jul–Aug–Sep) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q3 combine for a +9.4% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +9.2% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +6.4% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -3.94% | 5.55% | -1.16% | -8.49% | -12.92% | 1.42% | 22.31% | 5.36% | ||||
| 2025 | -5.52% | 3.96% | -9.23% | -5.59% | -18.00% | 7.08% | 3.90% | 6.62% | -3.17% | 15.92% | 19.85% | -1.07% |
| 2024 | 7.34% | 2.47% | -0.37% | -7.46% | 10.05% | 7.23% | 2.68% | 9.78% | -11.26% | -20.27% | -10.50% | -5.05% |
| 2023 | 5.13% | 0.26% | 8.05% | -2.42% | -8.26% | -2.31% | 3.25% | 11.40% | -0.43% | -5.23% | 5.63% | 6.61% |
| 2022 | -3.63% | 1.61% | 12.95% | -5.63% | 0.85% | -11.07% | -1.60% | -0.11% | 18.55% | 8.69% | 0.39% | -4.02% |
| 2021 | 4.29% | -10.57% | 5.01% | 1.72% | 4.39% | 11.17% | 2.88% | 17.19% | -10.13% | 5.74% | -0.53% | -0.79% |
| 2020 | 31.55% | 9.83% | 7.70% | 16.53% | 1.77% | 1.35% | -1.92% | -9.70% | -2.90% | -5.06% | -6.38% | |
| Avg | 0.61% | 4.98% | 3.58% | -2.88% | -1.05% | 2.18% | 4.97% | 7.16% | -2.69% | 0.33% | 1.63% | -1.78% |
REGN - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
REGN - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
REGN Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
REGN Distribution of Daily % Changes