Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +8.3% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -4.0% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +10.9% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -2.4% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +10.2% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.56% | 8.41% | -3.29% | 2.89% | -0.64% | 4.06% | 0.69% | -4.46% | ||||
| 2025 | -2.83% | 6.76% | -2.90% | -2.14% | -0.04% | -0.31% | 0.24% | 1.54% | 1.54% | -5.42% | 3.21% | -1.90% |
| 2024 | -6.46% | -1.15% | -1.17% | -2.21% | 3.68% | 2.44% | 8.26% | 7.94% | 0.27% | -1.09% | 5.81% | -1.27% |
| 2023 | 6.61% | -5.60% | -1.65% | 0.41% | -8.40% | 10.96% | 6.09% | -5.08% | -3.46% | 1.38% | 4.18% | 7.85% |
| 2022 | -4.78% | -8.17% | 9.29% | -3.52% | -0.90% | -12.09% | 8.63% | -5.57% | -10.55% | 12.37% | 9.78% | -4.97% |
| 2021 | 3.49% | 16.11% | 4.58% | 12.26% | 1.48% | 0.05% | 2.09% | 4.91% | -1.01% | 4.57% | -1.52% | 9.62% |
| 2020 | -6.55% | -33.10% | 14.26% | -0.94% | 7.24% | -10.59% | -1.88% | -4.26% | -6.39% | 28.07% | 1.31% | |
| Avg | 0.27% | 1.40% | -4.03% | 3.13% | -0.82% | 1.77% | 2.20% | 0.31% | -2.91% | 0.90% | 8.25% | 1.77% |
REG - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
REG - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
REG Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
REG Distribution of Daily % Changes