Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +12.1% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -12.3% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +16.7% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -2.6% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -16.3% vs the historical average for the same point.
RCL - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 16.40% | -4.22% | -11.03% | -4.15% | 7.91% | 12.14% | 0.24% | -4.18% | ||||
| 2025 | 15.57% | -7.69% | -16.23% | 4.61% | 19.57% | 22.20% | 1.51% | 14.27% | -10.64% | -11.36% | -7.17% | 5.12% |
| 2024 | -1.54% | -3.25% | 12.70% | 0.45% | 5.77% | 7.96% | -1.70% | 5.04% | 7.99% | 16.35% | 18.27% | -5.26% |
| 2023 | 31.38% | 8.78% | -7.56% | 0.20% | 23.75% | 28.12% | 5.18% | -9.32% | -6.87% | -8.04% | 26.83% | 20.50% |
| 2022 | 1.18% | 3.74% | 3.79% | -7.22% | -25.29% | -39.88% | 10.89% | 5.53% | -7.22% | 40.84% | 12.27% | -17.52% |
| 2021 | -12.97% | 43.49% | -8.21% | 1.57% | 7.27% | -8.57% | -9.86% | 7.62% | 7.52% | -5.08% | -17.30% | 10.14% |
| 2020 | -31.32% | -59.60% | 45.38% | 10.90% | -3.03% | -3.16% | 41.33% | -5.97% | -12.84% | 39.68% | -5.23% | |
| Avg | 8.34% | 1.36% | -12.31% | 5.83% | 7.13% | 2.71% | 0.44% | 10.74% | -2.53% | 3.31% | 12.10% | 1.29% |
RCL - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
RCL Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
RCL Distribution of Daily % Changes