Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -9.75% | -12.30% | -1.82% | 10.86% | -10.75% | -3.19% | 32.49% | 7.78% | ||||
| 2025 | 3.78% | -19.79% | -8.16% | 0.90% | 6.74% | 5.75% | -7.48% | 2.08% | -4.46% | 3.30% | -9.29% | -6.88% |
| 2024 | -0.10% | -1.65% | 11.02% | 1.39% | -7.26% | -7.87% | 13.36% | 10.11% | 7.73% | 1.63% | 9.42% | -1.64% |
| 2023 | 14.42% | -9.68% | 3.18% | 0.08% | -18.43% | 7.65% | 13.62% | -17.55% | -6.48% | -11.39% | 11.22% | 6.60% |
| 2022 | -8.82% | -34.90% | 3.32% | -23.97% | -3.09% | -18.04% | 23.90% | 7.99% | -7.89% | -2.89% | -6.19% | -9.17% |
| 2021 | 0.05% | 10.90% | -6.55% | 8.01% | -0.87% | 12.10% | -5.47% | 4.77% | -9.86% | -10.61% | -20.51% | 2.00% |
| 2020 | -5.18% | -11.34% | 28.47% | 26.02% | 12.40% | 12.54% | 4.12% | -3.48% | -5.53% | 15.04% | 9.38% | |
| Avg | -0.07% | -10.37% | -1.48% | 3.68% | -1.09% | 1.26% | 11.85% | 1.92% | -4.07% | -4.25% | -0.05% | 0.05% |
Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +11.8% with a 71% win rate across 5 years of history.
Feb shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Feb averages -10.4% with only a 14% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q3 (Jul–Aug–Sep) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q3 combine for a +9.7% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -11.9% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +20.5% vs the historical average for the same point.
PYPL - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
PYPL - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
PYPL Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
PYPL Distribution of Daily % Changes