Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +9.5% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -3.6% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +11.5% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +9.6% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +66.4% vs the historical average for the same point.
PSX - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 11.25% | 8.39% | 18.05% | -1.66% | -1.11% | -3.88% | 25.22% | 10.36% | ||||
| 2025 | 3.46% | 11.02% | -4.79% | -15.73% | 10.10% | 5.13% | 3.59% | 9.16% | 1.83% | 0.09% | 1.46% | -5.78% |
| 2024 | 8.39% | -0.53% | 14.62% | -12.32% | 0.02% | -0.66% | 3.05% | -2.75% | -6.31% | -7.33% | 10.96% | -14.96% |
| 2023 | -3.66% | 3.32% | -1.15% | -2.35% | -6.44% | 4.12% | 16.95% | 3.30% | 5.25% | -5.06% | 14.03% | 3.30% |
| 2022 | 17.02% | 0.41% | 2.55% | 0.43% | 17.39% | -18.67% | 8.55% | 1.62% | -9.77% | 29.20% | 4.90% | -4.02% |
| 2021 | -3.06% | 23.89% | -1.82% | -0.77% | 5.20% | 1.90% | -14.44% | -1.96% | -1.49% | 6.78% | -6.41% | 4.76% |
| 2020 | -17.24% | -28.33% | 36.38% | 8.31% | -8.13% | -13.74% | -4.37% | -11.34% | -9.99% | 31.85% | 15.45% | |
| Avg | 5.57% | 4.18% | -0.13% | 0.57% | 4.78% | -2.89% | 4.17% | 0.83% | -3.64% | 2.28% | 9.46% | -0.21% |
PSX - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
PSX Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
PSX Distribution of Daily % Changes