Seasonality
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PSKY - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Jan is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jan averages +10.8% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -8.9% with only a 57% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +1.2% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +0.4% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -22.4% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -16.34% | 20.52% | -32.89% | 13.53% | 3.61% | -6.62% | -19.27% | 27.39% | ||||
| 2025 | 4.02% | 4.41% | 5.73% | -1.84% | 3.07% | 7.06% | -2.56% | 16.95% | 29.05% | -18.66% | 4.09% | -16.03% |
| 2024 | -1.35% | -24.33% | 7.07% | -3.23% | 4.57% | -12.33% | 9.91% | -8.32% | 1.91% | 3.01% | -0.82% | -3.16% |
| 2023 | 37.20% | -7.51% | 5.42% | 4.57% | -34.80% | 4.92% | 0.75% | -5.86% | -14.19% | -15.66% | 32.08% | 3.25% |
| 2022 | 10.84% | -8.49% | 24.44% | -22.98% | 17.89% | -27.43% | -4.17% | -1.10% | -17.72% | -3.78% | 9.61% | -14.90% |
| 2021 | 30.17% | 32.97% | -29.87% | -9.05% | 3.41% | 7.16% | -9.45% | 1.27% | -4.11% | -8.33% | -14.55% | -1.71% |
| 2020 | -27.89% | -42.21% | 23.20% | 20.16% | 13.60% | 11.79% | 6.83% | 1.41% | 2.00% | 23.49% | 6.33% | |
| Avg | 10.75% | -1.48% | -8.90% | 0.60% | 2.56% | -1.95% | -1.86% | 1.63% | -0.61% | -6.90% | 8.98% | -4.37% |
PSKY - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
PSKY Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
PSKY Distribution of Daily % Changes