Seasonality
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Aug is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Aug averages +5.6% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -1.8% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q3 (Jul–Aug–Sep) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q3 combine for a +5.4% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +2.2% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +23.9% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.43% | 11.18% | -10.88% | 11.65% | 0.41% | 5.79% | 1.84% | 0.54% | ||||
| 2025 | -0.32% | 1.72% | -0.44% | 0.38% | 2.66% | -3.90% | -7.32% | 8.33% | -0.93% | -3.56% | -1.44% | -4.44% |
| 2024 | -7.15% | 0.24% | 3.24% | -10.55% | 5.54% | 6.21% | 2.88% | 16.15% | 6.75% | -9.57% | 5.77% | -13.15% |
| 2023 | 8.62% | -1.77% | 2.13% | -2.42% | -3.91% | 4.11% | -3.47% | -1.91% | -3.61% | -9.41% | 8.40% | 19.16% |
| 2022 | -4.28% | -0.98% | 10.55% | -4.81% | -11.00% | -4.79% | 8.63% | 1.35% | -10.97% | 5.79% | -3.81% | -5.34% |
| 2021 | -1.43% | 2.78% | 6.36% | 13.94% | 0.47% | 7.17% | 3.92% | 3.56% | -7.62% | 11.81% | -1.45% | 15.06% |
| 2020 | -6.54% | -4.07% | -6.63% | 9.32% | -4.38% | 4.16% | 6.26% | 5.82% | 2.85% | -2.01% | 3.83% | |
| Avg | 0.31% | 0.95% | 0.98% | 0.22% | 0.50% | 1.46% | 1.52% | 5.63% | -1.76% | -0.35% | 0.91% | 2.52% |
PSA - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
PSA - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
PSA Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
PSA Distribution of Daily % Changes