Seasonality
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PRU - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +6.4% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -4.7% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +11.2% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -5.2% historically, with January alone posting a 83% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +6.2% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -1.57% | -10.26% | -0.70% | 0.43% | 3.98% | 7.24% | 13.11% | 2.50% | ||||
| 2025 | 1.88% | -3.52% | -2.97% | -8.03% | 2.43% | 3.42% | -3.59% | 7.23% | -5.40% | 0.25% | 5.46% | 4.28% |
| 2024 | 1.18% | 5.12% | 7.72% | -5.89% | 10.11% | -2.63% | 6.94% | -2.22% | -0.05% | 1.14% | 6.74% | -8.41% |
| 2023 | 5.51% | -3.54% | -17.26% | 5.15% | -8.15% | 12.11% | 9.37% | -0.55% | 0.23% | -3.64% | 8.35% | 6.06% |
| 2022 | 3.08% | 1.09% | 5.83% | -8.17% | -0.88% | -9.95% | 4.50% | -3.12% | -10.41% | 22.63% | 3.86% | -7.93% |
| 2021 | 0.27% | 12.37% | 5.05% | 10.16% | 7.75% | -4.21% | -2.14% | 6.76% | -0.64% | 4.61% | -6.06% | 5.85% |
| 2020 | -16.18% | -30.89% | 19.62% | -0.36% | -0.10% | 4.06% | 8.72% | -6.27% | 0.79% | 19.86% | 3.24% | |
| Avg | 1.72% | -2.13% | -4.75% | 1.89% | 2.13% | 0.84% | 4.61% | 2.80% | -3.76% | 4.30% | 6.37% | 0.51% |
PRU - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
PRU Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
PRU Distribution of Daily % Changes