Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +4.3% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Feb shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Feb averages -4.3% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +6.7% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -1.6% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +1.7% vs the historical average for the same point.
PPL - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.51% | 7.53% | -1.27% | -1.99% | -5.48% | 3.54% | -3.14% | 2.30% | ||||
| 2025 | 3.51% | 4.79% | 3.38% | 1.08% | -4.79% | -1.68% | 5.31% | 2.19% | 2.68% | -1.72% | 1.04% | -4.32% |
| 2024 | -3.32% | 0.65% | 5.41% | -0.25% | 6.81% | -4.86% | 7.49% | 7.37% | 4.50% | -1.57% | 7.28% | -6.34% |
| 2023 | 1.30% | -8.55% | 3.58% | 3.35% | -8.77% | 1.90% | 4.04% | -9.48% | -4.52% | 4.29% | 6.31% | 4.71% |
| 2022 | -1.26% | -11.83% | 9.97% | -0.88% | 6.61% | -9.31% | 7.19% | 0.00% | -12.16% | 4.50% | 11.44% | -0.24% |
| 2021 | -1.88% | -5.35% | 11.76% | 1.01% | -0.07% | -2.52% | 1.43% | 3.45% | -3.70% | 3.30% | -3.37% | 9.57% |
| 2020 | -17.08% | -16.66% | 3.00% | 9.91% | -6.25% | 3.02% | 3.79% | -0.05% | 1.07% | 3.35% | 0.66% | |
| Avg | 0.31% | -4.26% | 2.31% | 0.76% | 0.60% | -2.74% | 3.62% | 1.22% | -2.21% | 1.64% | 4.34% | 0.67% |
PPL - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
PPL Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
PPL Distribution of Daily % Changes