Seasonality
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PODD - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +14.5% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jan shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jan averages -3.3% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +12.7% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -7.9% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -48.2% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -10.00% | -3.60% | -14.91% | -17.97% | -15.80% | 5.04% | 8.60% | -13.31% | ||||
| 2025 | 6.63% | -2.19% | -3.55% | -3.93% | 28.83% | -3.34% | -8.21% | 17.85% | -9.16% | 1.39% | 4.53% | -13.13% |
| 2024 | -12.03% | -14.08% | 4.51% | 0.32% | 3.05% | 13.89% | -3.69% | 4.33% | 14.79% | -0.52% | 15.22% | -2.14% |
| 2023 | -2.40% | -3.81% | 15.41% | -0.29% | -13.77% | 5.14% | -4.02% | -30.73% | -16.81% | -16.88% | 42.63% | 14.75% |
| 2022 | -6.79% | 6.73% | 0.64% | -10.29% | -10.67% | 2.09% | 13.70% | 3.10% | -10.20% | 12.82% | 15.67% | -1.66% |
| 2021 | 4.52% | -3.02% | 0.70% | 13.15% | -8.65% | 1.79% | 1.89% | 6.48% | -4.56% | 9.07% | -6.96% | -7.76% |
| 2020 | -2.10% | -12.79% | 20.55% | -5.58% | 3.02% | 4.68% | 7.32% | 8.40% | -6.06% | 15.96% | -0.81% | |
| Avg | -3.35% | -3.15% | -1.42% | 0.22% | -3.23% | 3.95% | 1.85% | 1.39% | -2.92% | -0.03% | 14.51% | -1.79% |
PODD - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
PODD Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
PODD Distribution of Daily % Changes