Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +5.3% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -3.6% with only a 50% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q1 (Jan–Feb–Mar) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q1 combine for a +4.4% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +4.4% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +8.4% vs the historical average for the same point.
PNW - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.48% | 8.26% | 0.45% | 2.95% | -2.98% | 7.28% | -5.62% | 1.40% | ||||
| 2025 | 2.58% | 7.52% | 2.93% | -0.07% | -3.23% | -1.93% | 1.29% | -0.41% | 0.34% | -1.27% | 3.71% | -2.38% |
| 2024 | -2.88% | -0.83% | 9.37% | -0.27% | 7.07% | -3.14% | 12.06% | 3.32% | 1.22% | -0.88% | 7.83% | -9.53% |
| 2023 | -0.80% | -1.17% | 7.55% | 0.10% | -1.50% | 5.41% | 2.73% | -6.70% | -4.65% | 1.88% | 1.02% | -4.14% |
| 2022 | -0.19% | 1.75% | 10.26% | -7.78% | 9.06% | -5.83% | 1.65% | 2.56% | -14.39% | 5.52% | 16.53% | -2.91% |
| 2021 | -4.85% | -7.07% | 16.33% | 5.10% | -0.08% | -3.09% | 2.93% | -7.96% | -5.90% | -10.88% | 2.18% | 8.52% |
| 2020 | -8.39% | -15.31% | 1.58% | 2.22% | -5.92% | 14.44% | -11.71% | 1.64% | 10.52% | 0.34% | -2.32% | |
| Avg | -0.11% | 0.01% | 4.51% | 0.23% | 1.51% | -1.03% | 4.21% | -3.48% | -3.62% | 0.82% | 5.27% | -2.13% |
PNW - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
PNW Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
PNW Distribution of Daily % Changes