Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.43% | -5.87% | -12.18% | -7.06% | -12.23% | 8.22% | -14.26% | 1.10% | ||||
| 2025 | 3.27% | -9.14% | -7.13% | 4.04% | 9.31% | 3.51% | -0.21% | 5.22% | 3.00% | -3.76% | -1.04% | -1.05% |
| 2024 | 0.96% | 6.31% | 9.83% | -7.16% | 2.90% | -5.79% | 14.94% | 0.93% | 10.26% | 1.60% | 9.96% | -7.66% |
| 2023 | 23.66% | 1.01% | -1.20% | 5.52% | -4.49% | 16.46% | 7.94% | 1.09% | -7.84% | -9.92% | 11.05% | 12.66% |
| 2022 | -12.50% | -9.09% | -6.39% | -6.02% | -1.14% | -8.77% | 7.28% | -8.98% | -8.70% | 6.27% | 6.57% | -1.73% |
| 2021 | 2.93% | 2.70% | 11.43% | 3.84% | 6.91% | -2.15% | 9.47% | 4.74% | -5.87% | 2.12% | -0.38% | -0.90% |
| 2020 | -8.25% | -24.45% | 16.94% | 13.15% | -2.94% | 13.30% | 5.34% | 1.40% | 9.12% | 4.14% | 2.45% | |
| Avg | 3.29% | -3.19% | -4.30% | 1.44% | 2.06% | 1.22% | 5.49% | 1.39% | -1.29% | 0.90% | 5.05% | 0.63% |
PNR - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +5.5% with a 71% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -4.3% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +6.6% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -4.2% historically, with January alone posting a 83% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -46.7% vs the historical average for the same point.
PNR - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
PNR Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
PNR Distribution of Daily % Changes