Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +9.4% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -6.8% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +14.1% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -6.4% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +26.6% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.80% | -4.90% | -2.01% | 7.99% | -0.84% | 11.35% | 2.29% | 2.84% | ||||
| 2025 | 5.06% | -4.49% | -8.41% | -7.63% | 8.16% | 7.26% | 2.95% | 9.02% | -3.14% | -8.31% | 4.48% | 9.44% |
| 2024 | -1.35% | -2.65% | 9.78% | -4.20% | 2.69% | -1.21% | 17.59% | 2.20% | -0.13% | 2.70% | 14.05% | -10.19% |
| 2023 | 5.68% | -4.54% | -19.52% | 3.76% | -11.07% | 8.74% | 10.00% | -11.81% | 1.69% | -5.52% | 17.03% | 15.59% |
| 2022 | 3.30% | -3.27% | -7.43% | -9.21% | 5.61% | -10.06% | 6.17% | -4.78% | -5.43% | 9.38% | 3.97% | -6.13% |
| 2021 | -2.99% | 17.31% | 4.19% | 7.27% | 4.13% | -2.01% | -3.74% | 4.76% | 2.38% | 8.54% | -6.65% | 1.79% |
| 2020 | -14.91% | -24.27% | 12.74% | 6.91% | -7.74% | 2.52% | 4.25% | -1.16% | 2.87% | 23.41% | 7.92% | |
| Avg | 2.92% | -2.49% | -6.81% | 1.53% | 2.23% | 0.90% | 5.40% | 0.61% | -0.97% | 1.61% | 9.38% | 3.07% |
PNC - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
PNC - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
PNC Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
PNC Distribution of Daily % Changes