Seasonality
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Apr is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Apr averages +4.3% with a 86% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -4.8% with only a 0% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +8.1% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +5.1% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 181 of the year, the current YTD return is +2.8% vs the historical average for the same point.
PM - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
PM - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
PM Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 11.87% | 4.12% | -10.71% | -0.16% | 7.46% | 2.84% | 5.48% | -1.84% | 1.89% | |||
| 2025 | 8.18% | 19.26% | 3.12% | 7.96% | 5.39% | 1.61% | -9.93% | 1.88% | -2.95% | -10.18% | 9.11% | 2.78% |
| 2024 | -3.43% | -0.98% | 3.26% | 3.62% | 6.78% | 1.25% | 13.65% | 7.06% | -0.43% | 9.31% | 0.27% | -8.55% |
| 2023 | 2.99% | -6.66% | 1.29% | 2.80% | -9.96% | 9.90% | 2.15% | -3.67% | -2.27% | -3.69% | 4.71% | 2.17% |
| 2022 | 8.26% | -1.73% | -5.80% | 6.45% | 6.25% | -5.90% | -1.61% | -1.71% | -11.83% | 10.65% | 8.51% | 2.84% |
| 2021 | -3.79% | 5.49% | 7.04% | 7.05% | 1.51% | 4.03% | 0.99% | 2.91% | -6.83% | -0.26% | -9.10% | 12.05% |
| 2020 | -1.00% | -9.29% | 2.25% | -1.66% | -2.98% | 9.63% | 3.88% | -4.53% | -5.29% | 6.66% | 10.87% | |
| Avg | 4.01% | 2.64% | -1.58% | 4.28% | 2.25% | 1.54% | 2.91% | 1.21% | -4.81% | 0.09% | 3.36% | 3.69% |
PM Distribution of Daily % Changes