Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +7.4% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -1.6% with only a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +8.2% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +3.9% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +17.3% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.91% | 4.31% | -8.04% | 0.58% | 2.56% | 9.57% | 3.17% | 3.92% | ||||
| 2025 | -5.54% | 0.20% | -6.46% | -6.27% | 4.07% | -1.81% | 2.81% | 12.50% | 0.57% | -10.17% | 4.25% | 1.68% |
| 2024 | 1.82% | 9.23% | 5.46% | -8.85% | 6.08% | 0.17% | 9.48% | 4.84% | 3.41% | 6.29% | 8.70% | -9.03% |
| 2023 | 11.56% | -4.19% | 2.52% | -2.57% | -8.30% | 7.57% | 16.03% | -2.77% | 3.85% | -0.33% | 9.77% | -2.31% |
| 2022 | 10.64% | -2.28% | 6.77% | 3.24% | -2.41% | -11.81% | 2.26% | -2.62% | -17.08% | 7.05% | 13.04% | -4.98% |
| 2021 | -2.50% | -1.81% | 2.60% | 9.79% | 0.68% | -8.26% | 4.49% | 7.21% | -8.80% | -0.05% | -4.94% | 5.04% |
| 2020 | -5.36% | -3.29% | 11.31% | 4.92% | -0.79% | -3.69% | 5.33% | 8.53% | 4.99% | 13.55% | 6.87% | |
| Avg | 3.98% | 0.01% | -0.06% | 1.03% | 1.08% | -0.77% | 4.94% | 4.08% | -1.59% | 1.30% | 7.40% | -0.45% |
PKG - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
PKG - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
PKG Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
PKG Distribution of Daily % Changes