Seasonality
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Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +9.5% with a 86% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -5.6% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +13.1% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -2.2% historically, with January alone posting a 83% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -4.7% vs the historical average for the same point.
PHM - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.68% | 9.68% | -14.10% | 4.04% | -3.42% | 16.35% | -7.83% | 2.93% | ||||
| 2025 | 4.48% | -9.23% | -0.25% | -0.21% | -4.44% | 7.81% | 7.07% | 16.91% | 0.25% | -9.28% | 6.11% | -7.62% |
| 2024 | 1.30% | 3.65% | 11.49% | -7.63% | 5.30% | -5.99% | 19.89% | -0.27% | 9.18% | -9.75% | 4.43% | -19.34% |
| 2023 | 24.95% | -3.90% | 6.91% | 15.22% | -1.59% | 17.81% | 8.64% | -2.76% | -9.58% | -0.62% | 20.15% | 16.97% |
| 2022 | -7.82% | -5.75% | -15.35% | -0.33% | 8.38% | -12.14% | 10.07% | -6.79% | -7.42% | 6.64% | 11.98% | 2.04% |
| 2021 | 0.88% | 3.70% | 16.58% | 12.74% | -2.25% | -5.33% | 0.55% | -1.84% | -14.49% | 4.70% | 4.06% | 14.56% |
| 2020 | -9.97% | -44.29% | 26.66% | 20.16% | 0.51% | 28.12% | 2.27% | 4.09% | -11.95% | 7.04% | -0.84% | |
| Avg | 5.08% | -1.69% | -5.57% | 7.21% | 3.16% | 2.72% | 9.50% | 1.26% | -3.00% | -3.38% | 8.96% | 0.96% |
PHM - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
PHM Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
PHM Distribution of Daily % Changes