Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.96% | 4.58% | 1.56% | -4.91% | -0.33% | -8.02% | 5.68% | 7.12% | ||||
| 2025 | 1.61% | -0.34% | -4.12% | -3.67% | -1.93% | 3.19% | -2.26% | 6.31% | 2.91% | -3.26% | 6.26% | -3.26% |
| 2024 | -4.52% | -1.92% | 4.48% | -7.68% | 13.55% | -2.37% | 10.69% | -5.01% | -0.24% | -2.21% | -5.95% | 1.22% |
| 2023 | -13.03% | -8.13% | 0.57% | -4.68% | -1.18% | -3.52% | -0.59% | -1.89% | -6.25% | -7.87% | 1.05% | -5.51% |
| 2022 | -10.09% | -10.91% | 10.29% | -5.22% | 8.97% | -1.15% | -2.91% | -10.45% | -3.25% | 6.38% | 8.61% | 2.21% |
| 2021 | -1.41% | -6.71% | 8.18% | 6.68% | 1.19% | 1.11% | 10.31% | 7.62% | -6.64% | 1.70% | 23.92% | 9.90% |
| 2020 | -10.26% | -2.33% | 17.52% | 0.55% | -14.38% | 18.83% | -1.79% | -2.88% | -3.32% | 14.98% | -3.92% | |
| Avg | -3.25% | -4.81% | 2.66% | -0.28% | 2.98% | -3.59% | 5.68% | -0.87% | -2.73% | -1.43% | 8.15% | 0.11% |
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +8.1% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Feb shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Feb averages -4.8% with only a 14% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +6.8% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -5.4% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +17.2% vs the historical average for the same point.
PFE - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
PFE - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
PFE Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
PFE Distribution of Daily % Changes