Seasonality
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Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +4.1% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -3.1% with only a 0% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +4.9% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -1.1% historically, with January alone posting a 17% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +2.0% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.04% | 10.49% | -7.70% | 2.06% | -9.02% | -5.11% | 3.07% | 0.88% | ||||
| 2025 | -0.90% | 1.84% | -1.44% | -9.58% | -3.05% | 1.55% | 4.45% | 7.78% | -4.60% | 4.02% | 1.81% | -2.57% |
| 2024 | -0.77% | -1.14% | 5.85% | 0.51% | -1.71% | -3.86% | 4.69% | 0.12% | -0.89% | -2.33% | -1.58% | -6.18% |
| 2023 | -5.34% | 1.47% | 5.76% | 4.71% | -4.47% | 2.28% | 1.21% | -4.42% | -4.77% | -3.64% | 3.85% | 0.92% |
| 2022 | -0.11% | -5.64% | 2.90% | 2.59% | -2.31% | 0.04% | 4.98% | -1.54% | -4.59% | 11.22% | 2.16% | -2.01% |
| 2021 | -7.91% | -5.40% | 10.36% | 1.92% | 2.62% | 0.89% | 5.93% | -0.36% | -3.16% | 7.44% | -1.13% | 9.45% |
| 2020 | -7.03% | -8.42% | 10.15% | -0.56% | 1.32% | 4.08% | 1.74% | -0.33% | -3.83% | 8.21% | 3.55% | |
| Avg | -1.33% | -0.77% | 1.05% | 1.77% | -2.64% | -0.41% | 4.06% | 0.55% | -3.06% | 2.15% | 2.22% | 0.53% |
PEP - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
PEP - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
PEP Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
PEP Distribution of Daily % Changes