Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +9.0% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jun shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jun averages -8.7% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +17.9% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -8.6% historically, with January alone posting a 17% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +15.3% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -4.04% | 23.22% | -7.26% | -5.41% | -1.68% | 3.24% | 3.33% | 2.65% | ||||
| 2025 | -22.45% | 4.41% | 5.30% | -3.84% | 2.18% | -17.27% | 0.57% | 8.99% | -1.14% | 5.84% | 1.00% | 0.00% |
| 2024 | -6.43% | -1.07% | 0.48% | 2.09% | 8.36% | -5.77% | 4.52% | 7.95% | 0.41% | 2.28% | 6.97% | -6.59% |
| 2023 | -2.21% | -1.76% | 3.52% | 5.81% | -0.99% | 2.01% | 1.91% | -7.44% | -1.04% | 1.05% | 5.34% | 5.07% |
| 2022 | 5.35% | -11.10% | 5.01% | 5.95% | -3.56% | -18.20% | 8.82% | 13.54% | 1.38% | 19.44% | 5.16% | 3.57% |
| 2021 | -8.27% | -8.05% | 11.42% | -3.33% | -10.42% | 0.30% | -13.57% | 4.32% | 4.69% | 20.83% | 2.41% | 2.19% |
| 2020 | 1.91% | -42.00% | 18.35% | 11.47% | -25.21% | 5.41% | -0.96% | 1.40% | 1.81% | 32.85% | -1.89% | |
| Avg | -6.34% | 1.08% | -3.36% | 2.80% | 0.76% | -8.70% | 1.57% | 4.40% | 0.95% | 8.54% | 8.95% | 0.39% |
PCG - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
PCG - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
PCG Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
PCG Distribution of Daily % Changes