Seasonality
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OTIS - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
OTIS Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
OTIS Distribution of Daily % Changes
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +5.7% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -2.3% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +5.8% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +1.8% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -23.8% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -2.21% | 8.86% | -16.72% | 1.04% | -8.49% | 1.07% | 0.49% | 1.56% | ||||
| 2025 | 3.03% | 4.99% | 3.43% | -6.72% | -0.53% | 3.85% | -13.46% | 1.29% | 5.85% | 1.45% | -3.77% | -1.69% |
| 2024 | -1.15% | 8.16% | 4.17% | -8.13% | 9.21% | -2.96% | -1.83% | 0.62% | 9.77% | -5.52% | 5.28% | -10.07% |
| 2023 | 5.01% | 3.26% | -0.26% | 1.07% | -6.41% | 11.95% | 2.19% | -5.57% | -6.13% | -3.86% | 11.57% | 4.29% |
| 2022 | -1.88% | -8.03% | -1.76% | -5.34% | 2.55% | -5.01% | 10.61% | -7.28% | -11.66% | 10.72% | 10.96% | 0.28% |
| 2021 | -4.29% | -1.15% | 7.44% | 13.76% | 0.90% | 4.39% | 9.51% | 3.26% | -10.78% | -2.39% | 0.39% | 8.30% |
| 2020 | 1.82% | 3.81% | 8.00% | 10.34% | 0.57% | -0.76% | -1.83% | 9.57% | 0.91% | |||
| Avg | -0.25% | 2.68% | -0.62% | -0.36% | 0.15% | 3.04% | 2.55% | -1.18% | -2.29% | -0.24% | 5.67% | 0.34% |
OTIS - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data