Seasonality
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Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +5.8% with a 71% win rate across 5 years of history.
May shows persistent seasonal weakness.
May averages -1.8% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q3 (Jul–Aug–Sep) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q3 combine for a +7.1% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +3.3% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -5.4% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.89% | -4.60% | -1.67% | 7.68% | -12.60% | 6.00% | -2.98% | 1.90% | ||||
| 2025 | 9.16% | 6.12% | 4.29% | -1.21% | -3.37% | -1.14% | 9.09% | 5.45% | 3.98% | -12.40% | 7.69% | -10.31% |
| 2024 | 7.68% | 6.29% | 3.81% | -10.24% | -4.93% | 9.63% | 6.65% | 0.32% | 1.91% | 0.13% | 7.81% | -4.62% |
| 2023 | -6.12% | 4.76% | 2.27% | 8.05% | -1.53% | 5.76% | -3.09% | 1.50% | -3.28% | 2.37% | 5.58% | -3.29% |
| 2022 | -7.71% | -0.39% | 5.50% | -11.45% | 5.05% | -0.85% | 11.37% | -0.92% | 0.89% | 19.03% | 3.27% | -2.37% |
| 2021 | -5.99% | 5.14% | 13.39% | 9.00% | -3.21% | 5.81% | 6.65% | -1.62% | 2.86% | 1.84% | 2.55% | 10.67% |
| 2020 | -9.20% | -18.35% | 28.33% | 8.00% | 1.06% | 13.21% | -2.46% | -0.98% | -5.31% | 1.34% | 2.29% | |
| Avg | 0.82% | 1.16% | 1.32% | 4.31% | -1.80% | 3.75% | 5.84% | 0.38% | 0.90% | 0.94% | 4.71% | -1.27% |
ORLY - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
ORLY - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
ORLY Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
ORLY Distribution of Daily % Changes