Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.60% | 11.00% | -6.86% | 62.81% | 19.65% | -21.62% | -13.68% | 1.29% | ||||
| 2025 | -16.99% | -10.11% | -13.52% | -2.43% | 5.84% | 24.73% | 7.54% | -12.01% | -0.56% | 1.56% | 0.32% | 7.78% |
| 2024 | -14.85% | 10.95% | -6.80% | -4.61% | 4.10% | -6.15% | 14.15% | -0.49% | -6.75% | -2.92% | 0.89% | -11.35% |
| 2023 | 17.76% | 5.39% | 6.34% | -12.59% | 16.18% | 13.13% | 13.92% | -8.62% | -5.60% | -32.61% | 13.87% | 17.10% |
| 2022 | -13.13% | 6.12% | 0.00% | -16.77% | 16.45% | -17.09% | 32.74% | 2.98% | -9.36% | -1.44% | 22.42% | -17.06% |
| 2021 | 5.38% | 16.76% | 3.33% | -6.27% | 2.67% | -4.40% | 2.04% | 13.57% | 3.18% | 5.03% | 27.79% | 10.56% |
| 2020 | -19.40% | -33.33% | 29.02% | 2.74% | 20.19% | 3.94% | 3.74% | 1.50% | 15.68% | 14.59% | 13.84% | |
| Avg | -1.87% | 2.96% | -7.26% | 7.02% | 9.66% | 1.26% | 8.66% | -0.14% | -2.93% | -2.45% | 13.31% | 3.48% |
ON - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
ON - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
ON Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
ON Distribution of Daily % Changes
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +13.3% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -7.3% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +17.9% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -6.2% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +42.4% vs the historical average for the same point.