Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +10.8% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -4.7% with only a 57% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +17.7% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +2.0% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +21.6% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.74% | 5.95% | 9.21% | 2.29% | -8.13% | 3.57% | 4.45% | 5.85% | ||||
| 2025 | -3.22% | 4.42% | -1.17% | -17.19% | -0.37% | 0.98% | 0.59% | -5.80% | -4.46% | -8.18% | 10.38% | 0.93% |
| 2024 | -1.42% | 10.07% | 6.72% | -0.10% | 2.38% | 0.68% | 2.18% | 12.17% | -1.33% | 6.31% | 18.47% | -11.62% |
| 2023 | 5.68% | -4.42% | -2.92% | 4.47% | -13.38% | 8.93% | 10.19% | -2.74% | -2.71% | 4.31% | 5.60% | 1.99% |
| 2022 | 4.90% | 7.61% | 8.16% | -9.06% | 3.98% | -15.72% | 9.33% | 2.49% | -16.32% | 17.61% | 12.81% | -1.82% |
| 2021 | 6.13% | 11.20% | 14.38% | 5.24% | 0.76% | 5.50% | -4.94% | 1.06% | 10.42% | 11.30% | -5.94% | -1.80% |
| 2020 | -10.89% | -67.31% | 41.77% | 22.59% | -9.46% | -13.19% | -1.54% | -5.46% | 15.17% | 23.69% | 7.00% | |
| Avg | 3.30% | 3.42% | -4.70% | 3.92% | 1.12% | -0.79% | 1.23% | 0.94% | -3.31% | 7.75% | 10.84% | -0.89% |
OKE - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
OKE - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
OKE Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
OKE Distribution of Daily % Changes