Seasonality
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Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +7.8% with a 71% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -4.5% with only a 17% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +8.4% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +7.9% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +31.6% vs the historical average for the same point.
ODFL - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.46% | 17.23% | -3.63% | 8.72% | 5.99% | -3.68% | -2.06% | -0.55% | ||||
| 2025 | 5.22% | -4.91% | -6.11% | -7.36% | 4.50% | 1.50% | -8.04% | 1.15% | -6.58% | -0.26% | -3.65% | 16.13% |
| 2024 | -3.53% | 13.16% | -0.76% | -17.14% | -3.56% | 0.92% | 19.01% | -8.27% | 3.17% | 1.35% | 11.83% | -21.56% |
| 2023 | 17.43% | 1.93% | 0.47% | -6.00% | -3.11% | 19.26% | 13.45% | 1.88% | -4.18% | -7.94% | 3.29% | 4.29% |
| 2022 | -15.75% | 4.01% | -4.80% | -6.21% | -7.71% | -0.76% | 18.43% | -10.58% | -8.24% | 10.38% | 10.20% | -6.13% |
| 2021 | -0.60% | 10.71% | 12.04% | 7.24% | 2.96% | -4.32% | 6.05% | 7.34% | -0.95% | 19.36% | 4.11% | 0.90% |
| 2020 | -1.24% | 1.71% | 10.69% | 17.76% | -0.79% | 7.80% | 10.59% | -10.45% | 5.22% | 6.82% | -3.95% | |
| Avg | 2.20% | 5.84% | -0.15% | -1.44% | 2.41% | 1.74% | 7.81% | 0.35% | -4.54% | 4.69% | 5.43% | -1.72% |
ODFL - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
ODFL Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
ODFL Distribution of Daily % Changes