Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +6.0% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -4.8% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q3 (Jul–Aug–Sep) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q3 combine for a +5.9% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -4.1% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -17.1% vs the historical average for the same point.
NVR - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.70% | -1.54% | -12.34% | -4.16% | -3.34% | 11.61% | -9.78% | 2.62% | ||||
| 2025 | -1.99% | -9.61% | -0.02% | -1.64% | -0.14% | 3.79% | 2.22% | 7.53% | -1.02% | -10.25% | 4.11% | -2.86% |
| 2024 | 1.07% | 7.78% | 6.22% | -8.16% | 3.25% | -1.20% | 13.43% | 6.56% | 6.97% | -6.72% | 0.90% | -11.44% |
| 2023 | 14.25% | -1.83% | 7.70% | 4.81% | -4.89% | 14.34% | -0.70% | 1.12% | -6.49% | -9.23% | 13.72% | 13.73% |
| 2022 | -9.84% | -6.92% | -9.91% | -2.04% | 1.70% | -10.03% | 9.71% | -5.76% | -3.70% | 6.29% | 9.47% | -0.57% |
| 2021 | 8.99% | 1.22% | 4.67% | 6.52% | -2.61% | 1.76% | 5.01% | -0.82% | -7.45% | 2.10% | 6.75% | 13.08% |
| 2020 | -3.92% | -29.94% | 20.66% | 3.92% | 1.15% | 20.60% | 6.06% | -2.04% | -3.18% | 1.12% | 2.07% | |
| Avg | 2.86% | -2.12% | -4.80% | 2.29% | -0.30% | 3.06% | 5.79% | 2.45% | -2.29% | -3.50% | 6.01% | 2.33% |
NVR - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
NVR Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
NVR Distribution of Daily % Changes