Seasonality
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NUE - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +10.5% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -8.9% with only a 0% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q1 (Jan–Feb–Mar) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q1 combine for a +15.0% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +15.0% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +33.7% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.96% | -0.47% | -4.07% | 33.23% | 10.97% | -10.68% | 15.51% | 4.52% | ||||
| 2025 | 10.04% | 7.04% | -12.06% | -0.81% | -8.39% | 18.95% | 10.44% | 3.96% | -8.57% | 10.80% | 6.29% | 2.62% |
| 2024 | 7.41% | 2.87% | 3.20% | -14.84% | 0.19% | -6.05% | 3.07% | -6.77% | -0.68% | -5.65% | 9.06% | -24.19% |
| 2023 | 28.23% | -0.93% | -7.43% | -4.07% | -10.88% | 24.57% | 4.95% | 0.01% | -8.85% | -5.47% | 15.01% | 2.71% |
| 2022 | -11.17% | 29.80% | 13.32% | 4.12% | -14.42% | -20.81% | 30.06% | -2.11% | -19.14% | 22.80% | 14.13% | -11.76% |
| 2021 | -8.38% | 22.76% | 34.88% | 2.48% | 24.65% | -6.05% | 8.43% | 13.02% | -15.89% | 13.36% | -4.83% | 7.89% |
| 2020 | -12.93% | -11.82% | 14.35% | 2.60% | -1.03% | 1.30% | 8.37% | -0.45% | 6.46% | 12.44% | -0.17% | |
| Avg | 5.85% | 6.88% | 2.29% | 4.92% | 0.67% | -0.16% | 10.54% | 2.75% | -8.93% | 7.05% | 8.68% | -3.82% |
NUE - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
NUE Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
NUE Distribution of Daily % Changes