Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +9.4% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -4.5% with only a 17% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +12.8% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +0.0% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +36.8% vs the historical average for the same point.
NTRS - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9.40% | -4.24% | -1.91% | 19.18% | -0.54% | 5.56% | 4.80% | 5.06% | ||||
| 2025 | 9.55% | -1.84% | -9.79% | -4.73% | 13.58% | 19.63% | 2.53% | 0.98% | 3.17% | -4.41% | 2.08% | 4.63% |
| 2024 | -5.62% | 3.13% | 9.28% | -7.34% | 2.25% | 0.60% | 5.56% | 2.89% | -0.46% | 11.65% | 10.59% | -7.16% |
| 2023 | 9.58% | -1.75% | -6.74% | -11.31% | -7.98% | 4.12% | 8.07% | -5.05% | -7.76% | -5.14% | 20.24% | 7.47% |
| 2022 | -2.48% | -2.35% | 2.91% | -11.51% | 8.44% | -13.11% | 3.42% | -4.70% | -9.32% | -1.41% | 10.39% | -4.14% |
| 2021 | -4.24% | 6.66% | 11.26% | 8.27% | 6.49% | -4.03% | -2.40% | 5.02% | -8.48% | 14.13% | -5.97% | 3.99% |
| 2020 | -10.28% | -13.16% | 4.90% | -0.19% | 1.23% | -1.25% | 4.52% | -3.96% | 0.38% | 18.97% | 0.78% | |
| Avg | 2.70% | -1.53% | -1.17% | -0.36% | 3.15% | 2.00% | 2.96% | 0.61% | -4.47% | 2.53% | 9.38% | 0.93% |
NTRS - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
NTRS Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
NTRS Distribution of Daily % Changes