Seasonality
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May is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
May averages +8.8% with a 57% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -4.8% with only a 14% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +13.2% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -10.8% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -16.2% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -23.62% | -7.69% | -3.20% | -15.53% | 40.83% | -20.17% | 12.04% | 11.48% | ||||
| 2025 | -3.94% | -8.70% | -14.37% | 19.95% | 5.87% | 1.68% | -8.26% | -2.72% | 0.31% | -0.11% | -11.63% | -5.72% |
| 2024 | 8.34% | 0.78% | -1.16% | -9.06% | -5.25% | 19.75% | 3.52% | 4.99% | 4.61% | 4.32% | 12.48% | 1.02% |
| 2023 | 17.22% | -5.04% | 7.53% | -1.14% | 18.58% | 3.16% | 3.74% | 1.00% | -5.07% | 4.10% | 17.86% | 3.03% |
| 2022 | -9.76% | -1.00% | -3.97% | -14.15% | -2.22% | 1.72% | -6.07% | -2.70% | -13.12% | 11.42% | -1.06% | -6.73% |
| 2021 | -1.32% | -1.79% | -6.25% | 1.25% | -6.42% | 15.97% | 6.98% | 9.48% | -3.32% | 12.13% | -7.17% | 0.22% |
| 2020 | -3.59% | -12.12% | 22.67% | 10.35% | 4.42% | 8.43% | 9.75% | 0.62% | 2.59% | 7.43% | 2.97% | |
| Avg | -2.18% | -3.86% | -4.79% | 0.57% | 8.82% | 3.79% | 2.91% | 3.30% | -2.66% | 5.74% | 2.99% | -0.87% |
NOW - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
NOW - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
NOW Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
NOW Distribution of Daily % Changes