Seasonality
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NOC - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +5.2% with a 71% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jun shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jun averages -1.6% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q3 (Jul–Aug–Sep) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q3 combine for a +7.0% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +3.1% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -7.0% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 21.40% | 4.97% | -5.82% | -15.06% | -2.73% | -9.25% | 6.51% | 8.00% | ||||
| 2025 | 3.83% | -5.24% | 11.38% | -4.98% | -0.36% | 3.63% | 15.33% | 2.33% | 3.67% | -4.25% | -1.92% | 0.05% |
| 2024 | -4.57% | 3.62% | 3.83% | 1.33% | -6.65% | -3.29% | 11.10% | 8.03% | 1.33% | -3.61% | -3.81% | -3.75% |
| 2023 | -17.88% | 3.96% | -0.52% | -0.10% | -5.18% | 4.66% | -2.37% | -2.25% | 1.64% | 7.10% | 1.19% | -1.48% |
| 2022 | -4.44% | 20.01% | 1.15% | -1.75% | 6.90% | 2.27% | 0.07% | 0.16% | -1.60% | 16.73% | -2.54% | 2.31% |
| 2021 | -5.94% | 2.25% | 10.96% | 9.52% | 3.66% | -0.67% | -0.11% | 1.72% | -2.05% | -0.81% | -1.93% | 10.97% |
| 2020 | -11.89% | -7.99% | 9.29% | 1.80% | -8.28% | 5.71% | 5.86% | -7.92% | -8.14% | 4.78% | 0.81% | |
| Avg | -1.27% | 2.53% | 1.86% | -0.25% | -0.36% | -1.56% | 5.18% | 2.64% | -0.82% | 1.17% | -0.70% | 1.49% |
NOC - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
NOC Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
NOC Distribution of Daily % Changes