Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.06% | 7.53% | -1.35% | 4.12% | -4.27% | 2.88% | -5.94% | -4.34% | ||||
| 2025 | 1.47% | 10.24% | -1.76% | -1.75% | 1.10% | 2.02% | 5.93% | -0.42% | 2.44% | -2.10% | 4.80% | -5.37% |
| 2024 | -2.18% | 1.37% | 6.14% | 1.69% | 4.31% | -0.86% | 9.39% | 5.79% | 4.81% | 2.24% | 8.33% | -3.49% |
| 2023 | 1.20% | -0.24% | 1.93% | 2.70% | -5.52% | 1.71% | 2.71% | -3.88% | -7.77% | 2.97% | 1.91% | 3.55% |
| 2022 | 5.69% | -0.06% | 9.92% | -7.71% | 8.00% | -6.23% | 3.92% | -2.93% | -14.64% | 2.94% | 8.76% | -1.86% |
| 2021 | -3.44% | -1.53% | 11.62% | 8.86% | -2.00% | -3.92% | 1.98% | -0.48% | -1.70% | 2.73% | -0.65% | 12.65% |
| 2020 | -7.16% | -7.59% | 1.35% | -5.10% | -4.57% | 8.44% | -9.37% | -0.72% | 5.36% | 5.35% | -5.21% | |
| Avg | 1.46% | 1.45% | 2.70% | 1.32% | -0.50% | -1.28% | 3.78% | -1.88% | -2.93% | 2.36% | 4.75% | 0.04% |
NI - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +4.8% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -2.9% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +7.2% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +5.6% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -7.0% vs the historical average for the same point.
NI Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
NI - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
NI Distribution of Daily % Changes