Seasonality
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Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +5.8% with a 71% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -3.2% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +6.0% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -0.6% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +7.8% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9.49% | 7.41% | -0.95% | 5.38% | -11.11% | 1.61% | -0.97% | -0.84% | ||||
| 2025 | -0.18% | -1.13% | 1.03% | -5.66% | 5.62% | -0.93% | 2.36% | 2.18% | 4.77% | 7.83% | 6.73% | -6.96% |
| 2024 | -3.47% | -5.01% | 15.80% | 4.79% | 19.49% | -10.94% | 7.88% | 6.08% | 4.99% | -6.25% | -0.07% | -8.87% |
| 2023 | -10.73% | -4.21% | 8.52% | -0.58% | -3.52% | 1.01% | -1.21% | -8.24% | -14.24% | 1.76% | 1.18% | 3.81% |
| 2022 | -16.32% | 0.75% | 8.23% | -16.16% | 7.18% | 2.34% | 9.08% | 1.16% | -7.82% | -1.16% | 9.85% | -1.30% |
| 2021 | 4.82% | -8.66% | 2.90% | 2.51% | -5.53% | 0.61% | 6.30% | 8.31% | -6.51% | 8.67% | 2.15% | 7.58% |
| 2020 | -5.26% | -4.80% | -3.95% | 10.57% | -5.50% | 16.88% | -0.04% | -0.58% | 5.51% | 0.99% | 4.84% | |
| Avg | -2.73% | -2.30% | 4.39% | -1.95% | 3.24% | -1.69% | 5.76% | 1.57% | -3.23% | 2.73% | 3.47% | -0.15% |
NEE - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
NEE - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
NEE Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
NEE Distribution of Daily % Changes