Seasonality
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NDAQ - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +10.8% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Feb shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Feb averages -4.7% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +10.6% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -5.6% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -1.1% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.25% | -9.61% | -2.76% | 8.27% | 0.66% | -14.50% | 19.50% | 3.00% | ||||
| 2025 | 6.51% | 0.53% | -8.05% | 0.46% | 9.62% | 7.37% | 7.60% | -1.54% | -6.38% | -3.35% | 6.35% | 7.15% |
| 2024 | -0.64% | -2.72% | 12.69% | -5.15% | -1.37% | 2.50% | 12.31% | 6.50% | 1.63% | 1.25% | 12.27% | -6.57% |
| 2023 | -1.89% | -6.86% | -2.10% | 1.28% | -0.04% | -9.55% | 1.28% | 3.94% | -7.01% | 2.08% | 12.58% | 4.53% |
| 2022 | -14.67% | -4.50% | 4.45% | -11.69% | -1.34% | -1.37% | 18.59% | -1.28% | -4.48% | 9.81% | 9.99% | -10.12% |
| 2021 | 1.91% | 2.23% | 6.99% | 9.55% | 3.66% | 5.32% | 6.22% | 4.85% | -1.14% | 8.73% | -3.16% | 3.62% |
| 2020 | -11.94% | -6.97% | 15.50% | 8.02% | 1.27% | 9.91% | 2.37% | -8.36% | -1.40% | 5.79% | 4.11% | |
| Avg | -1.50% | -4.69% | 0.61% | 2.60% | 2.74% | -1.28% | 10.77% | 2.47% | -4.29% | 2.85% | 7.30% | 0.45% |
NDAQ - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
NDAQ Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
NDAQ Distribution of Daily % Changes