Seasonality
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NCLH - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -1.61% | 12.89% | -24.57% | -2.78% | 0.88% | 15.10% | -12.22% | 2.59% | ||||
| 2025 | 10.18% | -19.86% | -16.55% | -15.45% | 10.11% | 14.90% | 26.04% | -2.82% | -0.85% | -8.97% | -17.66% | 20.91% |
| 2024 | -11.18% | 8.93% | 7.94% | -9.60% | -12.26% | 13.19% | -1.92% | -2.93% | 14.65% | 23.55% | 6.12% | -4.31% |
| 2023 | 24.26% | -2.56% | -9.24% | -0.74% | 11.24% | 46.60% | 1.38% | -24.92% | -0.54% | -17.48% | 12.28% | 31.24% |
| 2022 | 0.43% | -6.43% | 12.26% | -8.46% | -20.07% | -30.54% | 9.26% | 7.65% | -13.15% | 48.68% | -2.66% | -25.55% |
| 2021 | -10.93% | 30.51% | -6.66% | 12.54% | 2.74% | -7.81% | -18.29% | 7.53% | 3.37% | -3.71% | -24.14% | 6.30% |
| 2020 | -30.81% | -70.59% | 49.63% | -4.51% | 4.92% | -16.98% | 25.44% | 0.00% | -2.81% | 37.52% | 11.19% | |
| Avg | 1.86% | -1.05% | -15.34% | 3.59% | -1.70% | 8.05% | -1.82% | 1.66% | 0.58% | 6.54% | 1.91% | 6.63% |
Jun is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jun averages +8.1% with a 71% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -15.3% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +15.1% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -14.5% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -18.0% vs the historical average for the same point.
NCLH - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
NCLH Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
NCLH Distribution of Daily % Changes