Seasonality
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Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +8.6% with a 86% win rate across 5 years of history.
Feb shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Feb averages -3.7% with only a 14% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +12.7% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -3.3% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 187 of the year, the current YTD return is +8.9% vs the historical average for the same point.
MTD - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
MTD - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
MTD Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -1.50% | -0.48% | -7.72% | 1.22% | -7.52% | 8.21% | 10.86% | -0.79% | 8.11% | |||
| 2025 | 11.50% | -6.72% | -7.21% | -9.34% | 7.93% | 1.66% | 5.02% | 5.46% | -5.64% | 15.37% | 4.27% | -5.59% |
| 2024 | -1.30% | 4.18% | 6.74% | -7.63% | 14.18% | -0.46% | 8.83% | -5.39% | 4.21% | -13.87% | -3.14% | -2.20% |
| 2023 | 6.05% | -6.47% | 6.73% | -2.53% | -11.37% | -0.77% | -4.13% | -3.50% | -8.69% | -11.09% | 10.83% | 11.08% |
| 2022 | -13.23% | -4.34% | -2.52% | -6.97% | 0.67% | -10.68% | 17.49% | -10.17% | -10.59% | 16.68% | 16.18% | -1.64% |
| 2021 | 2.49% | -4.46% | 3.55% | 13.64% | -0.94% | 6.49% | 6.38% | 5.37% | -11.30% | 7.52% | 2.25% | 12.09% |
| 2020 | -7.33% | -1.59% | 4.26% | 10.43% | 1.33% | 16.07% | 3.83% | -0.52% | 3.33% | 15.24% | -0.90% | |
| Avg | 0.67% | -3.66% | -0.29% | -1.05% | 1.91% | 0.82% | 8.65% | -0.74% | -3.49% | 2.99% | 7.60% | 2.14% |
MTD Distribution of Daily % Changes