Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +7.8% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -8.6% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +7.3% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -1.9% historically, with January alone posting a 100% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +19.2% vs the historical average for the same point.
MTB Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9.97% | -2.07% | -4.07% | 5.76% | -1.15% | 10.90% | 3.48% | 3.17% | ||||
| 2025 | 7.04% | -4.73% | -6.10% | -5.03% | 7.59% | 7.01% | -2.73% | 6.87% | -1.27% | -6.96% | 3.45% | 6.76% |
| 2024 | 0.74% | 1.19% | 5.06% | -0.72% | 4.99% | 0.74% | 13.75% | -0.03% | 4.31% | 9.30% | 13.00% | -14.01% |
| 2023 | 7.54% | -0.46% | -22.33% | 5.21% | -4.28% | 3.86% | 13.01% | -9.66% | 1.12% | -10.83% | 14.85% | 6.95% |
| 2022 | 10.29% | 8.33% | -6.99% | -1.69% | 8.72% | -11.44% | 11.33% | 3.12% | -3.00% | -4.51% | 1.69% | -14.68% |
| 2021 | 4.06% | 14.75% | 0.44% | 4.01% | 2.61% | -9.57% | -7.89% | 5.44% | 6.66% | -1.49% | 0.44% | 4.75% |
| 2020 | -16.06% | -26.32% | 8.36% | -4.77% | -1.60% | 1.90% | -1.52% | -10.82% | 12.48% | 13.50% | 9.28% | |
| Avg | 6.61% | 0.14% | -8.62% | 2.27% | 1.96% | -0.01% | 4.69% | 0.70% | -0.50% | -0.34% | 7.82% | -0.16% |
MTB - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
MTB Distribution of Daily % Changes
MTB - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years