Seasonality
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MSI - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Aug is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Aug averages +6.5% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -2.5% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q3 (Jul–Aug–Sep) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q3 combine for a +7.9% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +1.3% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +17.0% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.01% | 19.80% | -9.78% | 1.17% | -8.14% | 3.29% | 4.93% | 7.06% | ||||
| 2025 | 1.52% | -6.19% | -0.28% | 0.59% | -5.68% | 1.49% | 4.40% | 7.63% | -2.99% | -11.06% | -9.10% | 4.03% |
| 2024 | 2.05% | 3.41% | 7.75% | -4.46% | 7.60% | 6.07% | 3.33% | 10.81% | 1.94% | -0.06% | 11.21% | -7.28% |
| 2023 | -0.27% | 2.26% | 9.24% | 1.84% | -3.25% | 4.36% | -2.27% | -1.07% | -3.69% | 2.28% | 15.95% | -2.74% |
| 2022 | -14.63% | -4.96% | 10.27% | -11.77% | 2.83% | -4.24% | 13.83% | 2.02% | -7.69% | 11.49% | 9.01% | -5.01% |
| 2021 | -1.48% | 4.73% | 7.59% | 0.13% | 9.03% | 5.98% | 3.26% | 9.07% | -4.59% | 7.00% | 1.85% | 7.64% |
| 2020 | -6.40% | -19.45% | 8.19% | -5.90% | 4.04% | -0.24% | 10.69% | 1.75% | 0.80% | 8.52% | -0.44% | |
| Avg | -1.30% | 1.81% | 0.76% | -0.62% | -0.50% | 3.00% | 3.89% | 6.52% | -2.54% | 1.74% | 6.24% | -0.63% |
MSI - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
MSI Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
MSI Distribution of Daily % Changes