Seasonality
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Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +10.0% with a 86% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -3.3% with only a 17% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +8.9% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -1.9% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +7.8% vs the historical average for the same point.
MSCI - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
MSCI Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
MSCI Distribution of Daily % Changes
MSCI - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.19% | -5.77% | -5.74% | 9.72% | 7.14% | -11.30% | 2.18% | -0.19% | ||||
| 2025 | -0.54% | -0.74% | -4.24% | -3.61% | 3.79% | 2.26% | -2.67% | 1.46% | -0.05% | 3.73% | -3.92% | 1.78% |
| 2024 | 5.83% | -6.03% | -0.09% | -16.89% | 6.66% | -2.71% | 12.25% | 7.67% | 0.40% | -2.01% | 7.01% | -1.58% |
| 2023 | 14.27% | -1.53% | 7.19% | -13.80% | -2.19% | -0.26% | 16.79% | -0.56% | -5.62% | -8.09% | 10.76% | 8.60% |
| 2022 | -12.50% | -6.24% | 0.24% | -16.23% | 5.29% | -6.83% | 16.79% | -6.44% | -6.11% | 11.16% | 8.60% | -8.40% |
| 2021 | -11.47% | 5.05% | 1.15% | 15.86% | -3.47% | 13.87% | 11.80% | 6.66% | -4.13% | 9.29% | -5.18% | -2.66% |
| 2020 | 3.59% | -2.19% | 13.16% | 0.77% | 1.51% | 12.63% | -0.50% | -4.42% | -1.95% | 17.26% | 9.06% | |
| Avg | 0.30% | -1.67% | -0.53% | -1.68% | 2.57% | -0.49% | 9.97% | 1.38% | -3.32% | 2.02% | 5.76% | 1.13% |