Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +10.4% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -5.7% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +16.9% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -4.8% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 181 of the year, the current YTD return is +4.1% vs the historical average for the same point.
MS - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
MS - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
MS Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.54% | -8.91% | -1.17% | 16.43% | 9.13% | 0.50% | 1.21% | 1.38% | -7.00% | |||
| 2025 | 10.84% | -3.84% | -12.35% | -0.28% | 10.93% | 10.02% | 1.84% | 5.63% | 5.64% | 3.80% | 3.45% | 4.64% |
| 2024 | -5.53% | -1.38% | 9.44% | -2.63% | 7.71% | -0.66% | 7.15% | 0.39% | 0.61% | 12.40% | 13.21% | -4.48% |
| 2023 | 15.40% | -0.85% | -9.02% | 3.36% | -9.13% | 4.45% | 8.20% | -7.00% | -4.09% | -12.23% | 12.03% | 17.53% |
| 2022 | 5.19% | -11.51% | -3.68% | -7.00% | 6.89% | -11.70% | 11.88% | 1.09% | -7.29% | 5.01% | 13.27% | -8.65% |
| 2021 | -1.66% | 14.65% | 1.03% | 6.75% | 10.18% | 0.81% | 5.45% | 8.80% | -6.82% | 6.35% | -7.74% | 3.52% |
| 2020 | -13.83% | -24.49% | 16.99% | 12.10% | 9.28% | 1.91% | 6.91% | -7.48% | 0.32% | 28.41% | 10.84% | |
| Avg | 4.63% | -3.67% | -5.75% | 4.80% | 6.83% | 1.81% | 5.38% | 2.46% | -3.24% | 2.61% | 10.44% | 3.90% |
MS Distribution of Daily % Changes