Seasonality
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MRSH - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.95% | -0.77% | -7.12% | -2.81% | -4.62% | 4.19% | 14.46% | -0.99% | ||||
| 2025 | 2.49% | 9.66% | 2.60% | -7.30% | 3.63% | -6.43% | -8.50% | 3.32% | -2.08% | -11.20% | 2.98% | 1.13% |
| 2024 | 2.67% | 4.35% | 1.83% | -2.84% | 4.09% | 1.51% | 6.02% | 2.22% | -1.94% | -1.81% | 6.87% | -8.93% |
| 2023 | 6.06% | -7.30% | 2.72% | 8.57% | -3.89% | 8.60% | 0.55% | 3.49% | -2.41% | 0.03% | 5.15% | -4.99% |
| 2022 | -11.31% | 1.15% | 9.66% | -4.82% | -1.08% | -2.94% | 6.01% | -1.58% | -7.49% | 8.57% | 7.24% | -4.45% |
| 2021 | -5.66% | 4.83% | 5.71% | 11.83% | 1.95% | 1.68% | 5.03% | 6.78% | -3.67% | 10.53% | -1.67% | 5.97% |
| 2020 | -6.53% | -17.31% | 13.16% | 8.83% | 1.37% | 9.04% | -1.45% | -0.18% | -9.43% | 10.81% | 2.06% | |
| Avg | -0.63% | 0.77% | -0.27% | 2.26% | 1.27% | 1.14% | 4.66% | 2.13% | -2.96% | -0.55% | 5.23% | -1.53% |
MRSH - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
MRSH Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
MRSH Distribution of Daily % Changes
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +5.2% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -3.0% with only a 0% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +4.7% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -0.1% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -4.8% vs the historical average for the same point.