Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +20.4% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Oct shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Oct averages -4.6% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +25.2% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +12.9% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 182 of the year, the current YTD return is +487.4% vs the historical average for the same point.
MRNA - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
MRNA - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
MRNA Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 49.44% | 21.56% | -5.17% | -9.57% | 2.72% | 48.40% | -21.72% | 156.00% | 29.76% | |||
| 2025 | -5.19% | -21.46% | -8.43% | 0.67% | -6.94% | 3.88% | 7.14% | -18.50% | 7.22% | 5.15% | -4.34% | 13.51% |
| 2024 | 1.61% | -8.72% | 15.52% | 3.52% | 29.23% | -16.70% | 0.40% | -35.08% | -13.66% | -18.66% | -20.79% | -3.44% |
| 2023 | -1.98% | -21.16% | 10.64% | -13.47% | -3.90% | -4.86% | -3.16% | -3.90% | -8.65% | -26.46% | 2.29% | 27.99% |
| 2022 | -33.33% | -9.29% | 12.15% | -21.97% | 8.12% | -1.71% | 14.87% | -19.39% | -10.60% | 27.13% | 17.02% | 2.11% |
| 2021 | 65.75% | -10.60% | -15.41% | 36.56% | 3.46% | 27.01% | 50.48% | 6.53% | 2.17% | -10.30% | 2.09% | -27.93% |
| 2020 | 26.43% | 15.50% | 53.56% | 33.72% | 4.41% | 15.40% | -12.43% | 9.03% | -4.64% | 126.38% | -31.60% | |
| Avg | 12.72% | -3.32% | 3.54% | 7.04% | 9.49% | 8.63% | 9.06% | 10.46% | -2.41% | -4.63% | 20.44% | -3.23% |
MRNA Distribution of Daily % Changes