Seasonality
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Aug is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Aug averages +4.2% with a 71% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jul shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jul averages -2.2% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +9.0% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +2.8% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 181 of the year, the current YTD return is +37.9% vs the historical average for the same point.
MRK - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
MRK - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
MRK Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.76% | 12.29% | -2.13% | -9.24% | 8.74% | 9.02% | 1.32% | 13.49% | 0.81% | |||
| 2025 | -0.66% | -6.65% | -1.86% | -5.08% | -9.81% | 4.05% | -1.31% | 7.68% | 0.76% | 2.44% | 21.92% | 1.27% |
| 2024 | 10.79% | 5.27% | 4.43% | -2.07% | -2.85% | -0.80% | -8.62% | 4.70% | -3.49% | -9.90% | -0.66% | -1.34% |
| 2023 | -3.19% | -1.09% | 0.84% | 8.53% | -4.38% | 5.21% | -7.57% | 2.18% | -4.89% | -0.24% | -0.21% | 7.15% |
| 2022 | 6.32% | -6.01% | 8.10% | 8.09% | 3.77% | -0.12% | -2.01% | -4.45% | 1.70% | 17.51% | 8.81% | 1.42% |
| 2021 | -5.78% | -5.77% | 7.09% | -3.36% | 1.87% | 8.32% | -1.16% | -0.75% | -0.66% | 17.23% | -14.92% | 3.28% |
| 2020 | -10.39% | 1.33% | 3.12% | 1.74% | -3.44% | 3.76% | 6.27% | -2.01% | -9.33% | 6.89% | 2.56% | |
| Avg | 2.04% | -1.77% | 2.54% | 0.00% | -0.13% | 3.18% | -2.23% | 4.16% | -1.43% | 2.95% | 3.64% | 2.39% |
MRK Distribution of Daily % Changes