Seasonality
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Mar is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Mar averages +5.0% with a 57% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -5.4% with only a 0% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q1 (Jan–Feb–Mar) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q1 combine for a +9.4% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +9.4% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +4.3% vs the historical average for the same point.
MO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
MO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
MO Distribution of Daily % Changes
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.51% | 11.37% | -2.82% | 10.09% | -4.23% | 4.95% | -5.03% | -3.85% | ||||
| 2025 | -0.11% | 6.93% | 9.40% | -1.45% | 2.47% | -1.59% | 5.65% | 8.51% | -0.12% | -14.65% | 4.66% | -0.50% |
| 2024 | -0.55% | 1.97% | 9.00% | 0.44% | 5.57% | 0.64% | 7.60% | 9.71% | -3.21% | 6.70% | 6.02% | -7.68% |
| 2023 | -1.47% | 3.09% | -1.85% | 6.48% | -6.50% | 4.12% | 0.26% | -2.64% | -2.78% | -4.47% | 4.66% | -1.78% |
| 2022 | 7.36% | 0.81% | 3.62% | 6.35% | -2.66% | -21.27% | 5.00% | 2.87% | -8.50% | 14.59% | 0.67% | 0.16% |
| 2021 | 0.20% | 6.13% | 19.37% | -6.67% | 3.08% | -1.43% | 0.76% | 4.56% | -7.72% | -3.10% | -3.33% | 13.27% |
| 2020 | -15.06% | -1.58% | 1.50% | -0.51% | 2.71% | 4.84% | 6.29% | -9.88% | -6.63% | 10.39% | 5.04% | |
| Avg | 2.16% | 2.18% | 5.02% | 2.39% | -0.40% | -1.70% | 2.73% | 4.88% | -5.37% | -1.26% | 3.85% | 1.42% |
MO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years