Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +6.7% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -5.8% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +9.0% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -2.0% historically, with January alone posting a 83% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +17.9% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.08% | -7.98% | -1.87% | 13.26% | 4.02% | 2.32% | 13.62% | 2.22% | ||||
| 2025 | 5.65% | 0.26% | -6.83% | -6.13% | 5.03% | 2.34% | -5.56% | 7.94% | 1.24% | -3.10% | -3.39% | 3.11% |
| 2024 | 4.82% | 1.41% | 6.27% | -4.09% | 2.61% | -3.01% | 9.49% | 1.63% | 6.45% | -4.92% | 13.30% | -7.20% |
| 2023 | 0.90% | -1.06% | -19.22% | 5.85% | -18.43% | 14.09% | 11.39% | 1.42% | -0.68% | -4.61% | 6.96% | 3.93% |
| 2022 | 7.31% | 1.44% | 4.04% | -6.55% | 3.37% | -6.83% | 0.73% | 2.52% | -5.52% | 20.45% | 5.48% | -5.65% |
| 2021 | 2.56% | 20.75% | 5.54% | 4.67% | 3.46% | -8.43% | -3.59% | 8.31% | -0.44% | 1.73% | -5.89% | 6.53% |
| 2020 | -13.29% | -28.44% | 18.02% | 1.22% | 1.42% | 3.64% | 2.86% | -3.35% | 1.83% | 23.48% | 1.69% | |
| Avg | 3.53% | 0.22% | -5.79% | 3.58% | 0.18% | 0.27% | 4.25% | 4.11% | -0.38% | 1.90% | 6.66% | 0.40% |
MET - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
MET - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
MET Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
MET Distribution of Daily % Changes