Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.63% | -18.17% | -1.63% | 3.68% | -5.41% | 0.10% | 10.64% | -1.78% | ||||
| 2025 | 13.04% | 10.39% | -8.06% | 19.48% | 9.97% | 1.96% | -9.17% | 4.17% | -5.50% | -0.41% | -10.98% | -2.78% |
| 2024 | 8.93% | -6.81% | -5.22% | -3.52% | 18.30% | -4.76% | 1.55% | 23.53% | -0.47% | -0.72% | -2.55% | -14.34% |
| 2023 | 39.64% | 3.24% | 8.04% | -3.08% | -3.01% | -4.39% | 4.51% | 10.85% | -7.61% | -2.14% | 30.60% | -3.02% |
| 2022 | -16.04% | -0.48% | 5.58% | -18.15% | -19.28% | -18.96% | 27.77% | 5.12% | -3.22% | 8.92% | 3.26% | -9.10% |
| 2021 | 6.23% | -7.95% | -10.13% | 6.71% | -13.51% | 14.66% | 0.70% | 19.04% | -10.07% | -11.81% | -19.76% | 13.46% |
| 2020 | -7.08% | -20.69% | 19.43% | 45.96% | 15.75% | 14.09% | 3.91% | -7.37% | 12.15% | 27.95% | 7.85% | |
| Avg | 9.74% | -3.84% | -4.59% | 3.51% | 4.71% | 0.62% | 7.15% | 11.10% | -5.71% | 1.00% | 4.75% | -1.32% |
Aug is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Aug averages +11.1% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -5.7% with only a 0% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q3 (Jul–Aug–Sep) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q3 combine for a +12.6% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +1.3% historically, with January alone posting a 83% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -15.8% vs the historical average for the same point.
MELI - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
MELI Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
MELI Distribution of Daily % Changes
MELI - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years