Seasonality
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Apr is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Apr averages +4.2% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -2.3% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +1.8% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +1.4% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +15.7% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.62% | 5.32% | -5.59% | 6.59% | -0.44% | -4.65% | 7.73% | 2.09% | ||||
| 2025 | -2.91% | 10.76% | 6.37% | 0.41% | -0.94% | 0.62% | -4.08% | -5.02% | 2.49% | -8.02% | 0.19% | -5.64% |
| 2024 | 3.92% | -2.92% | -3.62% | 2.77% | -4.74% | -3.90% | 4.45% | 5.06% | 3.24% | -7.04% | -5.15% | -7.31% |
| 2023 | -1.82% | -0.40% | 7.55% | 10.04% | -4.31% | -0.12% | 1.63% | -3.87% | -2.02% | -4.60% | 7.33% | 2.53% |
| 2022 | 1.09% | -2.31% | -3.59% | 2.71% | -1.43% | -1.76% | 3.14% | -3.40% | -10.77% | 12.13% | 9.97% | -0.85% |
| 2021 | -5.18% | -4.11% | 10.68% | 3.90% | 4.47% | -1.22% | 1.31% | -1.88% | -5.70% | 4.40% | -2.96% | 13.10% |
| 2020 | -7.98% | -4.58% | 2.72% | 1.32% | -1.34% | 8.53% | 5.28% | -1.11% | -7.54% | 8.15% | 2.33% | |
| Avg | 0.62% | -0.24% | 1.03% | 4.16% | -0.87% | -1.77% | 3.24% | -0.64% | -2.31% | -1.78% | 2.92% | 0.69% |
MDLZ - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
MDLZ - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
MDLZ Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
MDLZ Distribution of Daily % Changes