Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +8.1% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -6.4% with only a 0% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +9.7% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -4.4% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -6.0% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.92% | -7.36% | -8.46% | 5.87% | -1.63% | -0.07% | 5.62% | 1.59% | ||||
| 2025 | 5.51% | 1.09% | -7.59% | -2.70% | 5.99% | 4.65% | 2.82% | -0.98% | -6.53% | 0.80% | 2.38% | 4.09% |
| 2024 | 0.38% | -3.00% | 3.59% | -5.78% | 7.42% | 6.03% | 8.45% | 7.04% | -2.70% | -4.33% | 10.31% | -5.32% |
| 2023 | 15.84% | -9.86% | 5.47% | 2.32% | 1.45% | 9.73% | 1.45% | -4.30% | -6.13% | -2.58% | 18.74% | 7.01% |
| 2022 | -12.18% | -5.91% | 4.78% | -6.20% | -4.47% | -9.82% | 14.08% | -8.09% | -14.55% | 8.95% | 12.88% | -6.59% |
| 2021 | -8.26% | 3.47% | 8.63% | 9.41% | 2.84% | 8.06% | 3.76% | 1.44% | -6.74% | 13.81% | -3.19% | -0.02% |
| 2020 | -6.33% | -11.89% | 15.32% | 9.88% | 2.74% | 2.39% | 4.95% | -1.63% | -9.30% | 7.61% | 2.80% | |
| Avg | 0.37% | -3.99% | -0.78% | 2.61% | 3.07% | 3.05% | 5.51% | 0.01% | -6.38% | 1.23% | 8.13% | 0.33% |
MCO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
MCO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
MCO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
MCO Distribution of Daily % Changes