Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.14% | 8.83% | -15.71% | 18.97% | -1.72% | 15.83% | -12.15% | 3.99% | ||||
| 2025 | 9.25% | -4.78% | -7.50% | -12.84% | 3.50% | 3.11% | 5.86% | 8.20% | -4.09% | -8.00% | 0.67% | -2.17% |
| 2024 | 0.46% | 14.52% | 2.76% | -13.22% | 2.58% | -4.65% | 16.77% | 2.59% | 5.51% | -4.80% | 1.18% | -9.92% |
| 2023 | 13.99% | -0.91% | -5.17% | 7.62% | -9.18% | 18.75% | 5.75% | -2.28% | -9.42% | -2.54% | 16.83% | 10.62% |
| 2022 | -9.81% | -11.06% | -8.99% | 3.31% | 8.13% | -10.74% | 9.45% | -7.66% | -8.22% | -0.90% | 10.43% | -8.09% |
| 2021 | -0.88% | -2.01% | 12.55% | 6.64% | -5.22% | -2.32% | 1.36% | 2.08% | -8.51% | 18.00% | 0.89% | 6.56% |
| 2020 | -13.05% | -16.34% | 19.12% | 13.67% | 7.63% | 14.15% | 1.99% | -5.44% | -2.53% | 0.13% | 2.35% | |
| Avg | 2.86% | -1.21% | -5.49% | 4.23% | 1.68% | 3.94% | 5.88% | 0.82% | -5.03% | -0.13% | 5.02% | -0.11% |
Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +5.9% with a 86% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -5.5% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +9.9% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -3.8% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +17.4% vs the historical average for the same point.
MAS - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
MAS - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
MAS Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
MAS Distribution of Daily % Changes