Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +11.5% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -8.1% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +17.9% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -1.5% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 181 of the year, the current YTD return is +7.5% vs the historical average for the same point.
MAR - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
MAR - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
MAR Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.63% | 8.59% | -4.29% | 10.58% | 4.05% | -1.33% | 0.60% | -8.15% | 2.90% | |||
| 2025 | 4.18% | -3.27% | -15.07% | 0.16% | 10.87% | 3.56% | -3.43% | 1.79% | -2.77% | 0.05% | 17.24% | 1.79% |
| 2024 | 6.31% | 4.45% | 0.98% | -6.41% | -1.84% | 4.59% | -5.99% | 3.55% | 5.93% | 4.59% | 11.43% | -3.51% |
| 2023 | 16.99% | -2.61% | -1.89% | 1.99% | -0.61% | 9.48% | 9.86% | 1.10% | -3.42% | -4.07% | 7.77% | 11.25% |
| 2022 | -2.49% | 5.60% | 3.30% | 1.01% | -3.17% | -20.73% | 16.77% | -3.02% | -8.85% | 14.25% | 3.53% | -9.95% |
| 2021 | -11.83% | 27.31% | 0.03% | 0.28% | -3.33% | -4.92% | 6.93% | -7.43% | 9.58% | 8.06% | -7.79% | 11.98% |
| 2020 | -11.11% | -39.67% | 21.56% | -2.68% | -3.13% | -2.22% | 22.76% | -10.04% | 0.32% | 36.60% | 3.98% | |
| Avg | 2.46% | 4.14% | -8.09% | 4.17% | 0.47% | -1.78% | 3.22% | 1.51% | -1.59% | 3.87% | 11.46% | 2.59% |
MAR Distribution of Daily % Changes